Okay. Let's state this straight away - comic book movies are basically no chance of getting a major Oscar nomination. Heath Ledger thoroughly deserved his Supporting Actor win, but I do wonder if he would have even received a nomination if he had not tragically passed away (I hope he would have). But if Christopher Nolan couldn't get a best director nomination for The Dark Knight trilogy, I really don't believe any CBM is a chance now in an environment where the financial success of comic book movies seems to have irked the the greater film community.
Hell, Marvel do not even see the value in campaigning for Oscars, and probably have less technical nominations than they should. Please note, I'm basing these on what has been announced and/or heavily rumoured.
But anyway! These are who I think stand the best chance of gaining a nomination. Note, these are for Major Oscars only (special effects, costumes, make-up etc I've excluded). You may also notice a pattern - most of these nominations have received some Oscar love in the passed (giving both name recognition, and recognising the Oscars do have favourites).
Lead Actor
Ben Affleck (Untitled Batman Film)
The scenario: With Affleck now everybody's favourite coming of age story, tied in with the fact he and the Batman franchise in generally may have been snubbed before, a powerhouse performance in his own (self-directed) Batman solo flick would definitely put him in the minds of the Academy - who have already granted him two Oscars (writing for Good Will Hunting and best picture for Argo).
Likelihood: 15%
Chadwick Boseman (Black Panther)
The scenario: Boseman kills it in his solo film Black Panther (which turned out to be surprisingly political) and the critics are raving about his nuance performance and saying how we was overlooked for his role in 42 and Get on Up. Combine this with a politically sensitive Academy who find themselves yet again about to vote for an all white nominees list, and Boseman might find himself needing to find a date on Oscar night.
Likelihood: 15%
Benedict Cumberbatch (Doctor Strange)
The scenario: Cumberbatch is now an established superstar actor, with an Oscar nomination for The Imitation Game and multiple wins and nominations for his TV role on Sherlock. Cumberbatch could take everybody by surprise much like the way Johnny Depp did in the original Pirates of the Caribbean and Robert Downey, Jr. in Tropic Thunder. I realise that Doctor Strange won't be a comedy, but it promises to be a powerful (no pun intended) performance.
Likelihood: 10%
Lead Actress
No chance. Gal Gadot, no matter how spectacular her performance will be, won't get a nomination in this category. Just not going to happen unless Marvel cast Meryl Streep as Captain Marvel.
Supporting Actor
Jared Leto (Suicide Squad / Solo Batman Film )
The scenario: On the coat tails of Heath Ledger's performance and his own Oscar win for Dallas Buyer's Club, Leto's small role in Suicide Squad (I just don't think it will be a huge role) leaves his role in the upcoming Batman solo flick with high expectations and he knocks it out of the park.
Likelihood: 10%
Chiwetel Ejiofor (Doctor Strange)
The scenario: Now a well establish actor with an Oscar nomination for 12 Years a Slave, Ejiofor puts in a huge performance as Doctor Strange's villain (something he has done before - I still remember how fantastic he was in Serenity). However, Marvel's villains have been pretty hit or miss, he maybe limited.
Likelihood: 5%
Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett (Thor: Ragnarok)
The scenario: Say the rumours are true and Blanchett is cast in the Thor threequel, and Blanchett - who has 5 Oscar nominations for 2 wins and counting - steals the movie for her Australian co-star Chris Hemsworth. Blanchett is a force in world acting, and name recognition alone gives her chance.
Likelihood: 5%
Margot Robbie (Suicide Squad)
The scenario: Rising star Margot Robbie has her defining role as multi-layered, crazy, fun and heartbreaking Harley Quinn in David Ayer's Suicide Squad. Having made a splash with The Wolf of Wall Street, and in a film that is an ensemble (meaning she'd get away with a 'supporting' actress nomination in a less competitive category despite the film looking like it will be about her), Robbie is suddenly everyone's favourite to win.
Likelihood: 25%
Marisa Tomei (Spider-Man solo film)
The scenario: Playing the heart of the film in the new Spider-Man franchise, Oscar winner Tomei glues the film together in this 'Breakfast Club' omage of a Spider-Man film.
Likelihood: 5%
Original Screenplay (Adapted)
David Ayer (Suicide Squad)
The scenario: Suicide Squad is a Guardians of the Galaxy type of surprise hit, with people praising it for its unique take on the source material. Ayer, who wrote the script, is seen as putting a fresh view on the comic book genre.
Likelihood: 10%
James Gunn (Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2)
The scenario: Guardians of the Galaxy received a surprising amount of love for writing (nominations from the Saturn Awards, Award Circuit Community Awards, North Carolina, Science Fiction and Fantasy Writes of America, Screenwriters Choice Awards, St. Louis Film Critics and the Writer's Guild of America), which may lead to the Academy recognising a mistake for the well-received sequel.
Likelihood: 20%
Directing
Ben Affleck (Batman Solo Film)
The scenario: After being overlooked for Argo in the directing category, the Academy makes an over correction and gives Affleck a gong for his amazing take on the Caped Crusader.
Likelihood: 5%
Joseph Gordon-Levitt (The Sandman)
The scenario: Gordon-Levitt redefines the comic book genre with his trippy take on Neil Gaiman's masterpiece. That is, of course, if it ever gets off the ground.
Likelihood: 1%
Anthony & Joe Russo (Avengers: Infinity War (Part 2))
The scenario: Marvel announce the 'end of the MCU as we know it' and ramps up the nostalgia for the 2nd part of Infinity War. The Russos, having knocked the 3 Marvel films out of the park already, are seen as creating history and have created momentum for a nomination.
Likelihood: 1%
Best Picture
Nuffin. As good as I think some of the films will be, I just can't see them rising to Best Picture status.
So, over to you. What do you guys think? Any chance? Anyone you think is a shot?