While early tracking is notoriously unreliable, it still serves as a solid indicator of how well - or not - a new movie is likely to do during its opening weekend. In the case of The Marvels, the Captain Marvel sequel is currently eyeing a so-so $50 million - $75 million debut.
That's significantly behind the likes of even Eternals and Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania, but where did it go wrong for a movie which looks set to put the focus on Captain Marvel (Brie Larson), Ms. Marvel (Iman Vellani), and Photon (Teyonah Parris)?
In this feature, we're breaking down some of the most likely reasons The Marvels is tracking for such a disappointing debut. These numbers may well rise in the weeks ahead, but with less than a month to go, a subpar marketing campaign and surprisingly short runtime looks to be the lead of this sequel's worries.
To read through this breakdown, simply click on the "Next" button below.
5. "Captain Marvel" Should Be In The Title
This seems obvious to us but when you're making the sequel to a movie, Captain Marvel, which grossed over $1.1 billion at the worldwide box office, would it not be a smart move to include "Captain Marvel" in the follow-up's title?
The Marvels isn't a bad moniker but it also isn't one which really means anything to casual fans or even longtime comic book readers. On the surface, it does nothing to remind moviegoers Carol Danvers is returning here and fails to even mention Ms. Marvel, the star of Marvel Studios' best-reviewed Disney+ TV series.
Should it have been called Captain Marvel & Ms. Marvel: The Rise of Photon? We're not paid to come up with titles and that's admittedly too wordy, but we'd argue highlighting those two popular heroes might have gone some way in increasing interest.
4. It Should Be An Epic Adventure Not A Fun Team-Up
Captain Marvel was a tad convoluted; taking place in the 90s, the movie decided to put a weird new spin on the Kree/Skull War where the shape-shifters were the good guys. Even so, it felt like a big movie and, despite not being a conventional origin story, the stakes were undeniably high.
Based on what we've seen from The Marvels thus far, it doesn't look or feel particularly epic. Instead, we're clearly getting a goody team-up with a silly body-swapping (well, place-swapping) premise which is sure to lead to all sorts of hijinks when the trio assembles to battle a Kree villain most fans have never heard of.
Like the Skrulls, the Kree aren't particularly interesting and there are plenty of other, far more exciting cosmic baddies Carol, Kamala, and Monica could have faced off with. Instead of feeling like The Avengers, the movie - expected to be the MCU's shortest movie yet - comes across as a fun diversion and little more.
3. The MCU Is Going Through A Rough Patch
The idea of superhero fatigue is being blown out of proportion but after an incredibly busy few years for the MCU, fans and regular moviegoers alike would quite like a break from the seemingly never-ending deluge of content.
Marvel Studios movies and TV shows no longer feel like an event and the likes of Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania and Secret Invasion have done little to help matters. The latter really should have teed up The Marvels but instead feels wholly unconnected and, if anything, has just soured people on Nick Fury and the Skrulls.
We believe the MCU can, and ultimately will, bounce back. It may be a rocky few years before we reach that point and The Marvels could be another casualty of so-called "superhero fatigue" and the fact Marvel Studios is more hit-and-miss now than it has been in the past.
2. It's Been Too Long Since The First Movie
Marvel Studios arguably dropped the ball on Captain Marvel's MCU introduction from the start. With the Infinity Saga racing towards its conclusion, Brie Larson's scenes in Avengers: Infinity War and Avengers: Endgame were shot prior to her solo outing, resulting in the hero playing a much smaller role in those movies.
We've already touched on what proved to be a somewhat convoluted way to add Carol Danvers to this shared world (there was really no reason for her to be introduced in the 90s) but four years on...well, Captain Marvel has largely been overshadowed.
With only sporadic cameo appearances since 2019, expecting fans and regular moviegoers to have maintained interest in the character...well, it's asking perhaps too much. Four years between sequels is too long and that could ultimately play a role in the sequel struggling to find box office success.
1. The Online Vitriol
Some MCU fans love Captain Marvel and others don't really rate it. That's the case for any number of superhero movies, of course, but none of those have had to put up with the sheer level of trolling the 2019 blockbuster endured.
Believe it or not, many "fans" claimed Larson wasn't smiling enough in the trailers and posters and the fact the Oscar-winner is an outspoken feminist...well, the incels had a field day. Review bombing followed, as did vile online abuse, and even the actress herself seems disinterested in still playing the character.
This sort of negativity radiates outwards and is bound to have at least a minor impact on interest. Hopefully, Marvel Studios can turn things around in the weeks ahead, but the marketing campaign really needs to move up a gear, especially with the cast unable to help promote the movie.