THE MARVELS: Box Office Analysts Suggest Disney+, Not Superhero Fatigue, Is To Blame For Sequel's Low Opening

THE MARVELS: Box Office Analysts Suggest Disney+, Not Superhero Fatigue, Is To Blame For Sequel's Low Opening

Some have tried to blame The Marvels' poor box office performance on superhero fatigue and "wokeness," but a detailed new report suggests the MCU's place on Disney+ is the sequel's biggest detriment...

By JoshWilding - Nov 12, 2023 11:11 AM EST
Filed Under: The Marvels
Source: Deadline

While we'll have the final numbers tomorrow, as we write this, The Marvels is currently eyeing a $47 million - $52 million opening weekend in North America and a disappointing $110 million - $115 million debut at the worldwide box office. 

That's a record-low debut for the MCU and it's led to many superhero-hating pundits chiming in to declare "superhero fatigue" is in full effect. However, Deadline's box office expert, Anthony D'Alessandro, counters that by pointing out that when Marvel fans know they're getting a good movie - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, for example - they'll show up in force. 

In The Marvels' case, the marketing campaign was a misfire and, as the trade explains, "There was no pulse on The Marvels going back to San Diego Comic-Con. I mean, despite the actors strike, there wasn’t a damn banner, billboard, or emblazoned logo plastic bag in the city."

That was only mistake number one it seems, with the next being that, tonally, the sequel veers too far from what made Captain Marvel a billion-dollar success back in 2019. 

"[In] the case of The Marvels, it’s a 180-degree shift from the original movie’s heroic roots," D'Alessandro writes. "The Marvels, instead, is some sort of time-jumping, silly comedy that fans weren’t asking for. It’s a swing that has greatly cost Marvel Studios the entire Captain Marvel franchise, relegating her now to a supporting character in the rest of the MCU."

Out of Marvel Studios' control was the fact this movie isn't sandwiched between the record-breaking Avengers: Infinity War and Avengers: Endgame, two mega-blockbusters which greatly increased interest in The Marvels' predecessor. 

However, as many of you have often pointed out in our comments sections, it seems Disney+ could be the real culprit for The Marvels' box office struggles. 

"The Marvels meltdown isn’t about superhero fatigue. It’s about Disney’s overexposure of the Marvel Cinematic Universe brand on Disney+, and those moth holes are beginning to show," reads this report. "Keep what’s meant for the cinema in cinemas, and keep what’s meant for in-homes in the home."

Coming off the back of six weeks of Loki, The Marvels doesn't feel like a special event, particularly as it wasn't too long before that we had six weeks of Secret Invasion to dive into on streaming. Like Pixar, it seems Disney has devalued the brand by making people think a movie like this can just be watched at home somewhere down the line (not helping matters, unfortunately, is the fact it puts two streaming superheroes front and centre). 

Disney CEO Bob Iger has acknowledged that the studio must return to quality over quantity, so changes are being made (thus far, the only confirmed live-action MCU content for 2024 is Echo and Deadpool 3). Let's just hope it's not too little, too late. 

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MyCoolYoung
MyCoolYoung - 11/12/2023, 11:07 AM
I mean can it not be a lot of things? Box offices hsve been down since 2020. People are being more picky with what they go see.

Marvel needed a winter soldier for this phase but they got an antman and the wasp. It happens
bkmeijer1
bkmeijer1 - 11/12/2023, 11:15 AM
@MyCoolYoung - it definitely needs a big shake up like The Winter Soldier or Ragnarok, but right now it all just looks like more of the same.

Cap 4 is just FATWS in movie form, Thunderbolts same story, Blade just keeps getting delayed, and we know next to nothing on FF. The latter is the only one they can really surprise us with.
Usernametaken
Usernametaken - 11/12/2023, 11:23 AM
@MyCoolYoung - yes, there is multiple reasons.
-Superhero fatigue
-Disney movies coming to D+ 45 days after the theater release
-MCU drop in overall quality
-An overcomplicated and lacking in focus Phase 4 and 5.
-Too many MCU TV shows/Movies also made people just drop
Usernametaken
Usernametaken - 11/12/2023, 11:25 AM
@MyCoolYoung - And also, The Marvels is just not a compelling or interesting movie.

If the trend is going to be reversed, it will not come from a mid movie that doesn't take creative risks.
tylerzero
tylerzero - 11/12/2023, 11:37 AM
@Usernametaken -

LeDiableBlanc
LeDiableBlanc - 11/12/2023, 1:41 PM
@Usernametaken - I think your second point is the main issue, people are paying for a service that will have the movie in one and half months.
Usernametaken
Usernametaken - 11/12/2023, 2:32 PM
@LeDiableBlanc - Yeah it was kind of cool to do that, but when you send the message to people that they don't need to pay to see it in theathers, then of course they won't go.

They're already moving away from this, the new Indiana Jones is coming out on D+ almost 6 months after it's release in theaters.

A WB executive said it well, each movie should have different release windows based on its success. If you're movie is doing well in theaters, don't rush to release it in blu ray/VOD. And if those are doing well, then don't rush to put it on your streaming service.
bcom
bcom - 11/12/2023, 3:03 PM
@MyCoolYoung - I think this phase's 'Winter Soldier' so far has been Loki. That show feels like a throw back to peak MCU to me. Everything about it has been solid and it has also been doing a good job of slowly building Kang as a genuine threat.
bcom
bcom - 11/12/2023, 3:10 PM
@bkmeijer1 - Perhaps the MCU needs to introduce and establish some new core characters? We had Cap, Iron Man and Thor for the Infinity Saga and they were basically the glue that made the other lesser known characters at the time stick. We still have Thor and Spider-Man currently active but they seem to be doing their own thing instead of integrating more with the greater MCU.

I have a feeling that once the Fantastic Four and the X-Men show up that some level of excitement relative to the early days of the MCU might return, but that could still be years down the line.
Himura
Himura - 11/12/2023, 3:28 PM
@Usernametaken - You also forgot the cost of a movie ticket being $20. If you're a small family, a trip to the theaters can easily cost $100+ when you add in food too.
Usernametaken
Usernametaken - 11/12/2023, 3:34 PM
@Himura - True, cost of tickets are ridiculous these days. Cinema has become a luxury.
bkmeijer1
bkmeijer1 - 11/12/2023, 4:58 PM
@bcom - I sorta agree. For me, those three characters worked so well because of their very different personalities. Throw them in a room (or a lab) together, and the rest follows.

Now, there aren't really any conflicting personalities anymore. No character provides that glue that makes them stick imo. FF and X-Men definitely could introduce such characters again, if they aren't all the same witty, righteous personalities all over again.
bcom
bcom - 11/12/2023, 5:44 PM
@bkmeijer1 - Yeah. Good points there.

I think for me, there is no 'glue' holding the MCU together or major characters leading it at the moment. All the current movies and shows seem to be existing in their own self contained worlds and that sense of a wider MCU isn't really there anymore. Even though Kang is being billed as the next major threat, it's only really been Loki that's doing the job of building him as a threat. Even though Kang and his variants appeared in Quantomania he still felt like a 'villain of the week' rather than a Thanos level threat.

I know Kevin Feige and the MCU think tank always have a plan on where the MCU is headed, but when compared to past phases, there doesn't seem like a lot of connective tissue exists between shows and movies as it previously did.
MyCoolYoung
MyCoolYoung - 11/12/2023, 6:03 PM
@Usernametaken - eh interesting and compelling is objective. I found it interesting. Don't know if creative risk and all that matters that's not what's going to do it. They just need a complete win.

Guardians 3 was a good movie but didn't do crazy numbers. I don't even know what you mean by creative risk I just think that's something that sounds good because I'm not sure how much more risky can you get outside of 3 female leads.
MyCoolYoung
MyCoolYoung - 11/12/2023, 6:04 PM
@bcom - this phases winter soldier can't come from the tv series. It has to be loud and in the publics face.
MyCoolYoung
MyCoolYoung - 11/12/2023, 6:11 PM
@bkmeijer1 - I don't know, man. I think you kind of encapsulated the problem. You said Cap 4 looks like the show but we've yet to see anything from the movie. We've yet to see anything from any of those movies you said.

There's a lot of pressure on these movies to be knockouts and I don't know what other genre has that pressure.

I've never seen a romcom in need of being different from another one. Extraction wasn't so much different than any other movie of that genre but it captured the heart of the world. They just need to execute
MyCoolYoung
MyCoolYoung - 11/12/2023, 6:13 PM
@bkmeijer1 - in all honesty, if we didn't come here all the time what would we know about any of those movies?

We're judging movies based upon information we shouldn't even know. There's an information overload component that I've been speaking on for a while that's also contributing to the "greatest of all time or worst of all time mentality" that's going around. Enjoyable is the new terrible I guess
bcom
bcom - 11/12/2023, 9:19 PM
@MyCoolYoung - Perhaps my terminology was incorrect with my comment. What I mean is that Loki is probably the only show or movie that is pushing the theme of what this era of the MCU is about; the multiverse and establishing Kang as the next big bad. Even though a Kang variant was the big bad in Quantomania it didn't really do a good job of treating him as a series threat like Loki did.
MyCoolYoung
MyCoolYoung - 11/12/2023, 10:17 PM
@bcom - when you put it like that I 100% I agree. I do think Quantum ant man was a bigger threat than most but he who remains seems like a legit phase threat. 5 steps ahead of everything and we technically only seen him twice for like 10;minutes
bkmeijer1
bkmeijer1 - 11/13/2023, 2:03 AM
@MyCoolYoung - I'm kind basing my expectations on the shows and movies that I've seen, and that so far hasn't been overly impressive. They're still enjoyable though, but I don't mean that as a bad thing. Just as the biggest genre, I kinda expect more of it.

They indeed need to execute, but like @bcom says they need some glue. And I think that glue comes from strong, different characterizations.
DarthOmega
DarthOmega - 11/12/2023, 11:08 AM
Was Disney+ around for No Way Home?
Ha1frican
Ha1frican - 11/12/2023, 11:12 AM
@DarthOmega - That movie never came to Disney+ because it’s a Sony production. The other Spiderman movies just went onto it within the last year or two I believe
DarthOmega
DarthOmega - 11/12/2023, 11:51 AM
@Ha1frican - No, I mean the excuses for the movie's failure are coming in fast and hot. NWH may have not come to Disney+ but it is streaming. Maybe the quality of the film just isn't there. They also blamed marketing. Well the actors weren't able to promote it but the trailer was everywhere. Of course streaming is partly to blame. I fully acknowledge that. But I think people just weren't as interested in this film
Ha1frican
Ha1frican - 11/12/2023, 1:05 PM
@DarthOmega - It streaming now but it’s not like it was guaranteed to be on a streaming service months after release. For a long time you had to actually buy it so it’s not a very fair comparison although I don’t think its success was because of that
DarthOmega
DarthOmega - 11/12/2023, 4:08 PM
@Ha1frican - Explain how GotG3 made tons of money. Also Thor3 even Quantumania made money. Even with bad reviews and word of mouth those movies made money. Why won't people just admit the movie sucked? No one was excited for it. Not a lot of people really cared about the characters. Two of the characters were unknown with most audiences. The box office and early projections proved this. Eventually all of these CBMs comes to streaming. That does play a part but it's far from the only reason.

Also why do you think people said "I'll just wait till it streams? That's because it was no rush to go out and see it because not a lot of people cared. It's ok to admit this.
Ha1frican
Ha1frican - 11/12/2023, 4:31 PM
@DarthOmega - Because they were sequels to movies people actually enjoyed lol I’m not saying The Marvels looks amazing and that the sentiment around Carole Damvers isn’t the main cause of it not doing well but Disney+ is absolutely a factor in these lower tier movies not getting a bump from the rest of the MCU like they used to. Hell all the movies you mentioned, my family members didn’t go see because all of them wait for Disney+ rather than spending $17 per person to see them in theaters. These are people who used to go to anything with a Marvel logo on it and now I couldn’t drag them to a theater for anything but an Avengers or Spiderman if I tried
DarthOmega
DarthOmega - 11/12/2023, 4:55 PM
@Ha1frican - So that speaks to my point. The people don't really care about these movies like that anymore. It's not just the fact it's gonna stream soon. I even said it plays a role. I just don't think it's a big role. This headline will have people believing it's just D+
videovac
videovac - 11/12/2023, 6:38 PM
"Was Disney+ around for No Way Home?" - @DarthOmega

Peacock was around for Five Nights At Freddy's. Five Nights At Freddy's was released simultaneously on streaming and in theaters. Five Nights At Freddy's has made more money in its opening weekend than The Marvels.

There is no excuse for The Marvels under-performing. SIMULTANEOUS RELEASE, and it still performed better.
DarthOmega
DarthOmega - 11/12/2023, 6:59 PM
@videovac - Super Hero fatigue is real. It's not as catastrophic as some make it seem. We will certainly know more after Captain America, Deadpool 3, F4, The X-Men and the Joker 2, but as it stands, people just aren't as excited for these things anymore.

I wish it were different. Nothing like watching these things on opening night with fans. Lifelong fans of the comics and new fans of the films.
Ha1frican
Ha1frican - 11/12/2023, 11:09 AM
Well yeah, a big reason I don’t run out and see every MCU movie is because I know within a few months I can watch it at home in 4k with food in front of me. I’m not worried about spoilers as much since there isn’t much being set up in this phase so far so I’m fine to just mute keywords on social media and avoid trailers. If Disney+ didn’t exist I’d probably still see them all in theaters but much like with Pixar they’ve essentially promised all this content to their subscribers and shot themselves in the foot
ShimmyShimmyYA
ShimmyShimmyYA - 11/12/2023, 11:10 AM
This is the one part where WB is right (still [frick] Zaslav)

Studios being cannabalized themselves with streaming - you can’t tell people to go to theaters while also telling them it’ll be available in 2 months for 1/4 of the price.

That plus the quantity fatigue gets you hre
ReverseFlasher
ReverseFlasher - 11/12/2023, 11:27 AM
@ShimmyShimmyYA - and thats being generous… if you have a a family of any normal size, its an even greater savings… and oh yeah you also get the entire disney/marvel/sw/pixar catalog for that month too.
MattIsForReal
MattIsForReal - 11/12/2023, 11:10 AM
I’d say formulaic scripts are to blame. Loki felt new and original and every episode was captivating. The Marvels feels like a run of the mill AI-generates script.
Ironnick
Ironnick - 11/12/2023, 11:21 AM
@MattIsForReal - The Marvels script is a lot of things, but it definitely didn’t feel run of the mill or ai generated. Agreed on Loki, though.
MattIsForReal
MattIsForReal - 11/12/2023, 12:30 PM
@Ironnick - Perhaps I should’ve clarified that this was based only on what I’ve seen through trailers. I’ve yet to see the movie but if it’s more than what we’ve typically seen, their marketing for it has been really poor. There’s just no intrigue with the trailers, unfortunately. Still hoping to catch it in theaters but it’s hard to find time between kids and work to get to the theater unless it’s a MUST SEE event movie, ya know?
Elle79
Elle79 - 11/12/2023, 3:00 PM
@Ironnick - I saw it last night. The script was EXTREMELY run of the mill, and the movie was mediocre at best (I'm being kind). Adding in a illy song and dance number doesn't change that

Audiences are not responding to the movie, and it's oging to be a massive financial disaster.
Batmangina
Batmangina - 11/12/2023, 11:11 AM
I [frick]ing LOVE the backpedal/sidestep/alibi shuffle.

The fact that NOT ENOUGH PEOPLE GIVE A FLYING [frick] ABOUT THOSE CHARACTERS never seems to come up...
bkmeijer1
bkmeijer1 - 11/12/2023, 11:13 AM
Think streaming is partly to blame, but moreso because it is a way out of a bigger problem.

The bigger problem I think is that a lot of movies, The Marvels included, don't seem to offer anything special that makes people wanna watch ASAP. So, as a consequence people will wait for the streaming release knowing it'll be on streaming soon anyway.

And yeah, the lack of strong marketing isn't doing it any favors either.
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