While we'll have the final numbers tomorrow, as we write this, The Marvels is currently eyeing a $47 million - $52 million opening weekend in North America and a disappointing $110 million - $115 million debut at the worldwide box office.
That's a record-low debut for the MCU and it's led to many superhero-hating pundits chiming in to declare "superhero fatigue" is in full effect. However, Deadline's box office expert, Anthony D'Alessandro, counters that by pointing out that when Marvel fans know they're getting a good movie - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, for example - they'll show up in force.
In The Marvels' case, the marketing campaign was a misfire and, as the trade explains, "There was no pulse on The Marvels going back to San Diego Comic-Con. I mean, despite the actors strike, there wasn’t a damn banner, billboard, or emblazoned logo plastic bag in the city."
That was only mistake number one it seems, with the next being that, tonally, the sequel veers too far from what made Captain Marvel a billion-dollar success back in 2019.
"[In] the case of The Marvels, it’s a 180-degree shift from the original movie’s heroic roots," D'Alessandro writes. "The Marvels, instead, is some sort of time-jumping, silly comedy that fans weren’t asking for. It’s a swing that has greatly cost Marvel Studios the entire Captain Marvel franchise, relegating her now to a supporting character in the rest of the MCU."
Out of Marvel Studios' control was the fact this movie isn't sandwiched between the record-breaking Avengers: Infinity War and Avengers: Endgame, two mega-blockbusters which greatly increased interest in The Marvels' predecessor.
However, as many of you have often pointed out in our comments sections, it seems Disney+ could be the real culprit for The Marvels' box office struggles.
"The Marvels meltdown isn’t about superhero fatigue. It’s about Disney’s overexposure of the Marvel Cinematic Universe brand on Disney+, and those moth holes are beginning to show," reads this report. "Keep what’s meant for the cinema in cinemas, and keep what’s meant for in-homes in the home."
Coming off the back of six weeks of Loki, The Marvels doesn't feel like a special event, particularly as it wasn't too long before that we had six weeks of Secret Invasion to dive into on streaming. Like Pixar, it seems Disney has devalued the brand by making people think a movie like this can just be watched at home somewhere down the line (not helping matters, unfortunately, is the fact it puts two streaming superheroes front and centre).
Disney CEO Bob Iger has acknowledged that the studio must return to quality over quantity, so changes are being made (thus far, the only confirmed live-action MCU content for 2024 is Echo and Deadpool 3). Let's just hope it's not too little, too late.